Welcome to the third edition of our PER rankings from Australian National Basketball Championships. This one is for the 2018 U20 National Championships held in February. This is the first time that we have been able to assess the same players over multiple tournaments. Many players from this tournament played in either the U18 or U20 tournaments last year. We are hoping that over that time-frame we may see some trends from players that are either bottom age or top age, through development over time.
For those of you who haven’t seen the previous two PER articles, they can be found here:
PER or Player Efficiency Rating is a purely data driven analysis that considers as much information as is available from Basketball Australia's statistics from the National Championships website. We feel this provides a greater level of analysis of player performance than regular stats such as simple scoring or rebounding averages as they only consider limited information and don’t consider the major issue of differing court time. PER aims to come up with a singular ‘score’ for each individual to compare against all other players considering court time for each individual and game pace for each team.
We are still concerned by the lack of data for basketball actions that do not show up on stats sheets. We have had a look at the correlation between plus/minus data and our PER information. From this we concluded that +/- data in isolation does not show the same player's impact across games. The NBA now has data on things such as defensive field goal percentage for players and recognise functions such as court geometry impact for 3-point shooters, elite rim runners and 5-man unit’s plus/minus data, which obviously are not a part of this analysis. But without those advanced stats available we are confident that our PER data is the best available option for analysis currently available.
Looking back at last year’s u20 tournament's top 20 list there were 4 of those players returning for this year’s tournament. But only 1 of them was able to make it back into this year’s top 20. The only returning player is Glenn Morison from ACT. He has committed to play at the NCAA D2’s 25th ranked Cal Baptist, that currently also has South Australian Jordan Heading and ACT’s Bul Kuol leading the team to a record of 22-4, with 2 games to go before the conference tournament. Cal Baptist will join the WAC Division 1 Conference from 2018/19. This effectively makes Glenn a D1 commit.